
Pay Television licensing is a key element in studio “greenlight” models. (Greenlight models are the financial calculations that the studios develop and analyze in deciding which pictures to produce or acquire. Sharp Angle also utilizes this methodology in the film business plan work we do for clients.)

As this article from Variety indicates, deal terms in this area may be changing:
Some of the major studios’ deals at HBO, Showtime and Starz expire in 2008 and ‘09, and the three networks are seriously weighing whether they want to renew.
If they decide to tear up their current theatrical contracts, which ensure a multimillion-dollar payday for each movie, Hollywood would be forced to rethink some of its economics.
The pay cablers’ money makes the difference between profit and loss for many theatricals. And, just as crucially, any potential loss of pay TV money would affect studios’ decisions on what future films get made.
The 2008-09 expiration dates may seem a long way off, but as studios develop movie scripts years in advance, they automatically build in the anticipated pay TV revenues. But some of those far-off projects could be scrapped if there’s any prospect the pay TV dollars will go away or be drastically reduced.
“You’re effectively planning to greenlight movies based on deals that are expiring,” says a studio exec.
Especially at risk are low to midrange films. A loss of a few million bucks could mean these films won’t get made.
“If you have a big hit, a movie makes money everywhere, but if you have average box office on a movie, your profit is going to be in the pay deal,” says one studio chief.
For years, virtually every studio release was included in lucrative long-term output deals with HBO, Showtime and Starz.

Daily Variety, December 31, 2006. Daily Variety